The New South Wales election will be held on March 23. YouGov Galaxy has taken seat polls of East Hills and Ryde for The Daily Telegraph, with both polls conducted February 28 from small samples of just over 500 per seat.
In good news for the Coalition, East Hills was tied at 50-50, barely any swing to Labor from the 2015 election, when the Liberals held it by a 50.4-49.6 margin. Primary votes were 44% Liberals, 42% Labor, 7% Greens and 4% Christian Democrats.
There was better news for Labor in Ryde, where the Liberals led by 53-47, but this represents a large swing to Labor from a 61.5-38.5 Liberal margin at the 2015 election. Primary votes in Ryde were 43% Liberals, 36% Labor, 10% Greens and 5% Christian Democrats.
Respondents in both seats were asked whether the “performance of the Scott Morrison-led federal government” made them more or less likely to vote Liberal. In East Hills, 35% were more likely to vote Liberal, 31% less likely and 28% said there was no influence. In Ryde, the figures were respectively 30%, 37% and 28%. There was also a large difference in most important issue in the two seats, with migration easily winning in East Hills, while urban development led in Ryde.
Seat polls have been very unreliable in many recent elections, but East Hills was a major problem for Labor at the 2015 election. At the 2011 Coalition landslide, East Hills was won by the Liberals for the first time in its history going back to 1953. Despite an overall statewide swing of almost 10% to Labor in 2015, the Liberals marginally increased their vote in East Hills from 50.2% to 50.4%. Demographic changes could be compensating for an overall swing to Labor.
National Greenpeace ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor
A national uComms ReachTEL poll for Greenpeace, conducted February 27 from a sample of 2,130, gave Labor a 53-47 lead by respondent allocated preferences. After a forced choice question for voters who did not initially give a party, primary votes were 38.8% Coalition, 36.7% Labor, 9.7% Greens and 6.1% One Nation.
In this poll, Labor benefited from respondent preferences. On 2016 election preferences, Labor would have had a 52-48 lead. Ipsos polls since Scott Morrison became PM in August 2018 have shown no difference between respondent and previous election methods. One Nation voters’ preference for the Coalition is likely being cancelled by a greater flow of Greens and non-One Nation Others to Labor.
24% thought climate change and the environment most important in deciding their vote, followed by 23% for the economy, 18% health and hospitals and 11.5% immigration.