Seventeen days before the October 17 New Zealand election, a new poll has Labour short of a majority in its own right.
A New Zealand Colmar Brunton poll, conducted September 23-27 from a sample of 1,005, gave Labour 47% (down one since last week), National 33% (up two), the right-wing ACT 8% (up one), the Greens 7% (up one) and NZ First just 1% (down one).
PM Jacinda Ardern had a net approval of +51; this is very good, but down from +76 in May. 72% approved and 22% disapproved. Opposition Leader Judith Collins had a net approval of +12, down from +27 in July. 50% approved and 37% disapproved. Rounding explains the one-point difference compared with subtracting disapprove from approve. Ardern led Collins as better PM by 54-23 (54-18 last week).
If this poll were the result on October 17, Labour would win 59 of the 120 seats, two short of a majority. National would win 43 seats, ACT ten and the Greens eight. Labour’s seat number has slipped by three since last week, partly because the combined votes of all parties below the 5% threshold has dropped to 5% from 8%. More effectively wasted votes helps the bigger parties.
The Greens will be relieved that their vote in this poll is two points above the threshold. If the Greens failed to clear the threshold, Labour would win a majority provided that their vote exceeded that for National and ACT combined. Currently Labour leads National/ACT by 47-41, but that’s down from 48-38 last week.
A Reid Research poll was released on Sunday, but the fieldwork was taken September 16-23, about the same dates as last week’s Colmar Brunton poll (September 17-21). The Reid Research poll gave Labour 50.1%, National 29.6%, the Greens 6.5% and ACT 6.3%. Seat projections from this poll were Labour 65, National 39, Greens and ACT eight each.