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ReachTEL 50-50 tie in Wentworth, and where Morrison could have problems

A byelection is likely to be held in Wentworth in October after Malcolm Turnbull resigns.  A ReachTEL Wentworth poll for the left-wing Australia Institute, conducted August 27 from a sample of 886, had a 50-50 tie between the Liberals and Labor, an 18% swing to Labor since the 2016 election.

There were two primary vote scenarios.  In the first, the Liberals had 41.9%, Labor 31.5%, the Greens 15.6% and One Nation 2.3%.  The second scenario included two prominent independents, who each had 11-12%, with the Liberals on 34.6%, Labor 20.3% and the Greens 8.9%.

While seat polls are inaccurate, the loss of Turnbull’s personal vote, and the anger of well educated voters at his ousting, could make Wentworth close.

By 67-24, Wentworth voters thought the national energy guarantee should include an emissions reduction target.  By 69-10, they thought Scott Morrison would do less to tackle climate change than Turnbull, rather than more.

 

The Poll Bludger conducted a regression analysis of the two party swings at the 2016 federal election.  Education was the most significant explanatory variable, with a higher proportion of high school graduates associated with better swing results for the Coalition.  Well-educated people liked Turnbull, but are unlikely to warm to Morrison.

At the next election, Labor is likely to have better swing results in seats with high levels of educational attainment.

On August 28, The Australian released aggregate data from Turnbull’s final three Newspolls (all 51-49 to Labor).  In these three polls, Turnbull overall had a net -10 approval rating, but his best ratings were among those aged 18-34 (a net zero approval).  In Victoria, Turnbull had a net -5 approval.

Labor led by 54-46 in Victoria, and Labor and the Greens had a combined 55% of the primary vote among those aged 18-34.  But Turnbull’s relatively high ratings were probably holding up the Coalition vote in Victoria and among young people.  With Morrison replacing Turnbull, the Coalition’s vote in Victoria and with young people is most at risk.

In November 2017, the result of the postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage was announced, with Yes to SSM winning by 61.6-38.4.  This result shows that social conservatism has little electoral appeal.  It is likely that there will be far fewer potential Labor voters who would switch to voting for the Coalition under Morrison than the reverse.

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Newspoll and Essential both 51-49 to Labor

This week’s Newspoll, conducted July 26-29 from a sample of 1,700, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, unchanged on last fortnight.  Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 36% Labor (steady), 10% Greens (steady) and 7% One Nation (steady).  Three of the four days of this poll’s fieldwork were taken before the Super Saturday byelection results were known.

This was the Coalition’s 37th successive Newspoll loss under Malcolm Turnbull, four more than the previous record of consecutive Newspoll losses for a government.  However, the primary vote shift in this poll indicate the Coalition is closing in on a 50-50 Newspoll.

42% were satisfied with Turnbull’s performance (up one), and 48% were dissatisfied (down one), for a net approval of -6, equal with a Newspoll four weeks ago for Turnbull’s best net approval this term.  Bill Shorten’s net approval fell one point to -25.  Turnbull maintained an unchanged 48-29 lead as better PM.

By 40-29, voters thought Anthony Albanese would be better than Shorten to lead Labor.  Albanese led by 34-35 points with Coalition and One Nation voters, but Shorten led by 49-33 with Labor voters and 32-29 with Greens voters.

 

This week’s Essential, also conducted July 26-29 from a sample of 1,022, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, unchanged on last fortnight.  Primary votes were 41% Coalition (up one), 36% Labor (steady), 10% Greens (steady) and 6% One Nation (steady).  Essential is using 2016 election flows, and this poll would be 50-50 by Newspoll’s new methods.

55% thought the parties’ policies were very important to their votes, 28% the parties’ leaders and 27% local candidates.  By 64-21, voters agreed that parties should not change leaders before elections, yet by 56-29 they also agreed that parties should replace their leader if they are unpopular.

28% (up four since April) thought Turnbull the best Liberal leader, 16% Julie Bishop (down one), 10% Tony Abbott (down one) and 5% Peter Dutton (up two).  Among Coalition voters, Turnbull had 51% (up six), Bishop 14% (up one) and Abbott 11% (down six).

19% (down one since August 2017) thought Shorten the best Labor leader, 19% Anthony Albanese (up six) and 12% Tanya Plibersek (down one).  Among Labor voters, Shorten had 37% (up three), Albanese 17% (up two) and Plibersek 13% (down two).

Since November 2017, there has been an eight-point decrease in perception that the Liberals are divided, an eight-point increase in “has a good team of leaders” and a five-point increase in “clear about what they stand for”.  For Labor, there was a seven-point decrease in extreme, a five-point decrease in “too close to the big corporate interests” and a five-point increase in divided.

The Liberals were 30 points ahead of Labor on being too close to the big corporate interests, and 16 points ahead on being out of touch, but they were seven points ahead on having a good team of leaders.  Labor was 20 points ahead on looking after the interests of working people and eight points ahead on understanding the problems facing Australia.   In November 2017, the Liberals were 13 points ahead on divided; now both parties are equal.