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Liberals win Darling Range (WA) byelection

The byelection for the Western Australian state seat of Darling Range was held on June 23.  The Liberals’ Alyssa Hayden defeated Labor’s Tania Lawrence by a 53.3-46.7 margin, a 9.1% swing to the Liberals since the 2017 state election.

Primary votes were 34.4% Liberal (up 4.0%), 32.1% Labor (down 9.4%), 7.8% One Nation (down 0.9%), 5.8% Greens (down 1.8%), 5.8% for the new WA Party, 4.7% Christians (up 0.3%), 4.5% Shooters (up 0.3%) and 3.3% Animal Justice.  Labor performed badly on preferences due to the larger right-wing minor party vote.

The byelection had been held after the former Labor MP, Barry Urban, had been forced to resign over allegations of fraudulent behaviour.  At the 2017 election, Labor won Darling Range with a massive 18.9% swing.  Given the circumstances of the byelection and some tendency for a correction after a large swing, the Liberals were expected to re-take Darling Range.

A ReachTEL poll for The West Australian, published just one week before the byelection, gave Labor a 54-46 lead in Darling Range.  Polls for individual seats have had large errors in Australia.  The seven-point error in this ReachTEL implies that polls of the July 28 federal byelection seats may not be accurate.

There have been many occasions where governments have suffered large swings against them at byelections, but won the next general election comfortably.  It is likely that most of the swing against Labor was caused by the circumstances of Barry Urban’s resignation.

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Conservatives easily win June 7 Ontario election

Ontario is Canada’s most populous province.  The centre-left Liberals had governed for 15 years, but finished a distant third at the June 7 election, behind the Conservatives and the New Democratic Party (NDP) – Canada’s most left-wing major party.  The Conservative leader, Doug Ford, has been compared to Donald Trump.

The Conservatives won 76 of the 124 seats (up 44 since the 2014 election), the NDP 40  (up 17), the Liberals just seven (down 62) and the Greens one (up one).  Parliament was expanded from 107 to 124 seats, and I am using the notional seats held before the 2018 election for seat changes.

Vote shares were 40.5% Conservatives (up 9.3%), 33.6% NDP (up 9.8%), 19.6% Liberals (down 19.1%) and 4.6% Greens (down 0.2%).  Ontario uses First Past the Post.

CBC analyst Éric Grenier’s Poll Tracker gave the Conservatives 38.7%, the NDP 35.5%, the Liberals 19.6% and the Greens 4.9% in its final pre-election edition.  There was movement to the Conservatives in the final days, as the NDP slipped from a one-point lead to a three-point deficit.  Three of the four final polls gave the Conservatives four to six point leads.

The NDP had surged from third place at the end of April, when a Conservative landslide looked likely, to a peak position of a two-point lead at the end of May.  The drop over the final few days was probably because many voters were unfamiliar with the NDP’s agenda.  The greater focus on the NDP in the final days damaged their chances.

The Conservatives benefited greatly from the splitting of the left vote between the NDP, Liberals and Greens.  The three left parties combined won 57.8% of the vote, but just 38.7% of the seats.  During the 2015 Canadian federal election campaign, Justin Trudeau promised to reform Canada’s electoral system, but he abandoned that promise in early 2017.

With the Conservatives currently leading Trudeau’s Liberals in federal polling, it is possible they could repeat their success in Ontario, or indeed the 2011 federal election.  The next federal election is due by October 2019.

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Spanish conservative government falls, Italian populist government formed

The December 2015 and June 2016 Spanish elections both produced inconclusive results.  Neither the right-wing parties (the Popular Party and the new Citizens’ party) nor the left-wing parties (the Socialists and the new Podemos) won enough lower house seats for a right or left majority.  In October 2016, incumbent Popular Party PM Mariano Rajoy won a confidence vote after the Socialists abstained.

On June 1, Rajoy lost a confidence vote by 180 votes to 169, following a corruption scandal that involved members of his party.   Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez became the new PM.

However, with only 84 of the 350 lower house seats, the Socialists will find it difficult to legislate.  Furthermore, the Popular Party controls the upper house, which is elected by First Past the Post, while the lower house uses rough proportional representation.

The next Spanish election is not due until 2020, but it could be held earlier.  The Citizens wanted a snap election, as they hold a lead in current polls.

 

In Italy, almost three months after the March 4 election, a coalition government was formed between two populist parties: the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right League.  Combined, both parties have majorities in both chambers of the Italian Parliament.  Five Star has nearly twice as many seats in both chambers as the League, so they are the senior partner in the coalition.

There was a last-minute hitch when the Italian President refused the nomination of the Finance Minister, as the nominee was Eurosceptic.  However, the League and Five Star Movement selected a different nominee who was acceptable to the President.