A Tasmanian EMRS poll, conducted May 7-10 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 47% of the vote, Labor 30% and the Greens 14%. At the March state election, the Liberals won 50%, Labor 33% and the Greens 10%. In the final pre-election EMRS poll, the Liberals had 46%, Labor 34% and the Greens 12%.
EMRS skews to the Greens, and its final poll was worse for the Liberals than the election results. Given this, there is no evidence of a drop in Liberal support since the election. Some Labor support appears to have gone to the Greens.
On the better Premier question, incumbent Will Hodgman led Opposition Leader 47-41 (48-41 in the final pre-election ERMS).
On May 15, preferences were distributed in the upper house seat of Prosser, which voted on May 5. In a field of 13, Liberal Jane Howlett won 26.1%, Labor’s Janet Lambert 21.9% and independent Steve Mav 19.7%. After preferences, Howlett defeated Lambert by 52.7-47.3, with Mav finishing third, well behind Lambert.
There are now four Labor and two Liberal members of the upper house, from a total of 15 – the rest are independents. According to Tasmanian analyst Kevin Bonham, party representation in Tasmania’s upper house is at an all-time high.
The overall balance of power is unchanged with Labor and four left-wing independents holding eight of the 15 seats. A left-wing independent was re-elected in Hobart, held on the same day as the Prosser election.
Every May, two or three of Tasmania’s 15 upper house seats are up for election for a six-year term.